Biopharma M&A deal volume was up slightly YoY with 10 transactions in Q3 2024, compared to 9 transactions in Q3 2023. Transaction value of $9B was down 35% YoY from $13B in Q3 2023. Biogen’s $7.1B acquisition of Reata accounted for 53% of transaction value in Q3 2023.
The XBI closed Q3 with a 7% gain and was up 10% year-to-date, though it remained 10% behind both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 year-to-date.
As stated in our Q2 M&A update, we expect biopharma M&A to remain active through the remainder of 2024. With the recent 50 basis point cut to the federal funds rate and a dovish outlook, we expect both public and private biopharma companies to benefit from a favorable macro environment. As we have mentioned in prior quarterly market updates, we continue to expect high-quality privately held biotechnology companies to evaluate sale transactions in parallel to assessing the public markets as an alternative exit for investors. We expect distressed publicly traded companies to continue to pursue private company mergers or cash-out transactions with financial buyers. On the demand side, large biopharma continues to face impending revenue gaps due to anticipated patent expiries and will continue targeting commercial stage or clinically de-risked companies targeting large commercial markets. Larger transactions are possible, but given the upcoming election and continued FTC uncertainty, large biopharma will remain hesitant to pursue mega deals. We expect to see continued robust activity away from the mega deals.
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